National Cyber Warfare Foundation (NCWF)

Welcome back, my aspiring cyberwarriors! For decades now, people have been talking with baited breath about quantum computing and its potential to revolutionize computing. So far, no commercial products have appeared. This isn’t dissimilar (I know, a double negative) from what happened to artificial intelligence. For decades, people talked about the promise of AI, and […]

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Welcome back, my aspiring cyberwarriors!

For decades now, people have been talking with baited breath about quantum computing and its potential to revolutionize computing. So far, no commercial products have appeared. This isn’t dissimilar (I know, a double negative) from what happened to artificial intelligence. For decades, people talked about the promise of AI, and then suddenly, it was upon us and everywhere.

Quantum computing isn’t not upon us yet, but it very close. Maybe 3 years away from hybrid CPU/GPU/QBit machines. That’s not long to prepare for the revolution it will unleash on cybersecurity.

In this post, I want to help you to better understand what quantum computing is and how it will change the discipline we love, cybersecurity. If any of this interests you, we have a Intermediate Cryptography training coming up, October 21-23. We will delve deeper in that class on quantum computing and post quantum cryptography (PQC).

This is a revolution you don’t want to miss!

What is Quantum Computing?

Quantum computing is an advanced field of computer science that uses the principles of quantum mechanics—such as superposition, entanglement, and interference—to process information in ways that are fundamentally different from classical computers.

What is Quantum Mechanics?

Quantum mechanics is the fundamental branch of physics that describes how matter and energy behave at very small scales—typically atoms and subatomic particles. It explains phenomena that classical physics cannot explain, introducing principles like wave-particle duality, superposition, and the uncertainty principle.

Core Principles of Quantum Mechanics

Wave-particle duality: Quantum entities like electrons and photons show both particle and wave characteristics, depending on how they are measured.

Superposition: A quantum system can exist in multiple states simultaneously until measured, at which point it collapses to a definite state.

Uncertainty principle: It is impossible to precisely know both the position and momentum of a particle at the same time (Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle).

Quantization: Physical properties such as energy, momentum, and angular momentum can only take discrete values in quantum systems.

Probability and measurement: Quantum mechanics provides probabilities of outcomes, not certainties—only accounting for what is likely to be measured. This is a fundamental difference between quantum mechanics and traditional mechanics and a major challenge of bringing quantum computing to the commercial and practical use.

Key Concepts of Quantum Computing

Qubit: The quantum analogue of the classical bit. Unlike a classical bit, which is always deterministic (either 0 or 1) a qubit can exist in a superposition of both states simultaneously, which allows quantum computers to process many possibilities at once.

Superposition: A principle where a qubit can be both 0 and 1 at the same time. This enables quantum computers to handle much larger computational spaces than classical bits.

Entanglement: A phenomenon where qubits become linked such that the state of one instantly influences the state of another, no matter how far apart they are. This property boosts quantum processing power for certain calculations.

Interference: Quantum algorithms are designed to amplify the probability of correct answers and reduce the probability of incorrect ones using interference patterns.

Why Is Quantum Computing Important?

Quantum computers have the potential to solve complex problems much faster than classical computers, such as factoring large numbers (important in cryptography), simulating molecules for drug discovery, and optimizing large datasets. It is ability to quickly solve factoring very large numbers that is of most interest to us in cybersecurity. Asymmetric encryption is dependent upon the inability of modern, traditional computers to solve these calculations quickly. Quantum computers do not lack this ability and asymmetric encryption algorithms such as RSA are easily broken by quantum computers using Shor’s algorithm.

Limitations and State of the Art

Most quantum computers today are experimental and best suited for specific research or narrow applications but practical applications are on the near horizon. Quantum computing companies such as IONQ have signed contracts with the US Defense Department and US Air Force to offer quantum computing services. This means that state-sponsored actors are likely to have quantum computing capabilities long before the rest of us.

Challenges include qubit stability (decoherence), error rates, and scaling up to large numbers of qubits for practical use. Despite these challenges, industry leaders such as Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, are developing hybrid systems that will integrate CPU’s, GPU’s and Qbits. These will likely be the first commercial systems and are probably only 3 years away.

Summary Table

Classical Computer	Quantum Computer
Bit (0 or 1)	Qubit (0, 1, both via superposition)
Deterministic	Probabilistic
Linear scaling	Exponential scaling with qubits
Limited by classical physics	Exploits quantum mechanics

Quantum computing represents a revolutionary approach for tasks that remain too hard for today’s most powerful classical systems including asymmetric cryptography(RSA, ECC).

How Quantum Computing Threatens Cybersecurity

Breaking Current Encryption: Quantum computers, thanks to algorithms like Shor’s, will be able to factor large numbers and solve mathematical problems that underpin widely used encryption methods such as RSA and ECC at unprecedented speeds. This means that secure communications (HTTPS, VPNs, digital signatures) and much of the world’s encrypted data could be decrypted by quantum adversaries, exposing sensitive information, financial transactions, private communications, and critical infrastructure.

‘Harvest Now, Decrypt Later’ Threat: Malicious actors may harvest encrypted data today, intending to decrypt it in the future when quantum computing power becomes available

Vulnerable Infrastructure: Industries relying on legacy encryption—such as banking, healthcare, and government—are particularly threatened, as data breaches could result in massive regulatory, financial, and reputational harm

Advanced Malware and Attacks: Quantum computing may also enable more advanced malware, AI-driven attacks, and the rapid discovery of vulnerabilities, further evading current detection systems

Post Quantum Cryptography

Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) is the field focused on designing and standardizing cryptographic algorithms that are secure against attacks by both classical computers and future quantum computers. It aims to protect data and communications from being decrypted by powerful quantum machines that could break today’s widely used public-key cryptography, such as RSA and Elliptic Curve schemes.

To implement post quantum cryptography will mean replacing today’s hardware and software with new IT infrastructure. Those who fail to do this will no longer enjoy the benefits of confidentiality and privacy. Until this new infrastructure is deployed, the first movers with access to quantum systems will be able break everyone’s cryptography.

Summary

Quantum computing will radically reshape the threat landscape—eroding the security of current systems. Once the state-sponsored entities from the US, Russia, China, and Israel have these systems at their disposal, none of information will be safe. Remember that asymmetric encryption is usually used for key exchange between communicating systems. If the key exchange can be intercepted, nothing is safe!