Vladimir Putin is in his fourth term as Russias president, having held the role for (a noncontinuous) 18 years. Russias next presidential election cycle is in 2024, and while Putin has amended the constitution to permit his rule until he is 84, speculations continue to circulate regarding his declining health at 70 years old. Moreover, as domestic and international pressure continues to mount on Putin over a year into Russias war against Ukraine, Putins longevity as the Federations president is a key topic of interest for the international community.
New Insikt Group Research examines Aleksey Dyumin, the governor of Tula and former chief security guard of Russian president Vladimir Putin, and his potential to serve as the next Russian president. The report evaluates factors that establish Dyumin as a potential successor for Putins role, including his success as a member of the siloviki and his effective managerial skills as governor of Tula. In addition, we assess factors that weaken Dyumins bid for the presidency, specifically his strained relationship with defense minister Sergei Shoigu and the broader Russian military apparatus. To strengthen his bid, Dyumin very likely would need to improve his relations with the Russian military to ensure that his appointment as the Tsesarevich would not cause a conflict within the siloviki faction.
(Dyumin (left) serving as Putins bodyguard in 2000)
Dyumin would very likely be a leading candidate should Putin decide to choose a successor. His personal loyalty to Putin, good relations with members of the Russian elite, successful completion of strategically important tasks in Ukraine, and effective leadership in Tula have established the former aide-de-camp as a strong contender for the presidency.
Dyumins policies and actions as a member of the siloviki faction and the governor of Tula suggest that a Dyumin presidency would very likely preserve Putins political system. Domestically and internationally, Dyumin would likely continue Putins policies, given his career in the Russian Federal Protective Service (FSO), the Russian Defense Ministry, and his role in annexing Crimea. However, any candidate chosen by Putin would also likely seek to improve relations with the West.
To read the entire analysis with endnotes, click here to download the report as a PDF.
Source: RecordedFuture
Source Link: https://www.recordedfuture.com/putins-potential-successors-part-2-aleksey-dyumin